Four Scenarios

The future is affected by uncertainties. By working with scenarios we accept uncertainty as a given. A team of regional experts identified the key uncertainties for the future, based on interviews with 25 regional decision makers.

Out of a long list of uncertainties, the scenario team chose two major themes that have a direct and important impact on Limburg’s relative social and economic force in the world.

Societal alignment & European integration

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The first theme that stood out was the fragmentation of goals and expectations in Limburg and its surrounding regions. It is not at all certain how this will develop in the future. The second theme is about access to new and larger markets just across borders. Can the obstacle imposed by borders be removed? The extremes were positioned alongside each other in a matrix. This provided the basis for 4 scenarios that describe how Limburg could develop in the future.

Download ‘the Nightingale’ to read the four scenario stories and how these came about.

Scenario expertise

The Nightingales scenarios were developed under the direction of Professor Kees van der Heijden (Oxford University, Shell). His advice: “While your are reading the scenarios, think of your own plans and how they would survive in these different worlds. Does this give you ideas on how things could be done better? All four scenarios are equally plausible, any one of them could happen. The question is: Are we prepared?”