Scenario Planning Method

Scenario planning is an approved method that explores environmental factors and mutual relationships to produce a more systemic insight into the situation. Effective scenarios provide systemic insight, shared understanding and a platform for action.

Systemic insight and shared platform for action

A scenario is an internally consistent ‘history of the future’. Because the future is, by its very nature, uncertain, several scenarios always exist simultaneously. Focussing on just one scenario is more like making a prediction, which is usually based on some sort of official or desired future that has been extrapolated from the past. In scenario planning, however, the future is not based on “more of the same”. A set of scenarios does not try to predict what will happen by extrapolation, but instead gives an overview of what could happen on the basis of underlying connections. This approach produces a more objective description of the situation in which we find ourselves.

Knowledge integration

The art of scenario planning is to discover alternative ways in which the situation could develop in the light of current fundamental uncertainties. Our aim is to make maximum use of all available relevant knowledge and expertise, across the borders of customary academic disciplines. Constructing interdisciplinary scenarios leads to an improved understanding of the -often complex- interactions between the driving forces that propel us towards the future.